Climate Seers as Blind Guides

04 February 2013

The science of forecasting is complex. After 50 years spent studying the issue, I have found there is plenty of experimental evidence that in complex, uncertain situations, experts cannot forecast better than those with little expertise.  

Forecasts of dangerous man-made global warming rely heavily on expert judgments. Is the global warming alarm movement another example of the seer-sucker phenomenon? If so, what is the scientific approach to climate forecasting?

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