Dr Kesten Green

Senior Marketing Scientist

As well as one of the Institute’s Senior Marketing Scientists, Kesten is a leading forecasting researcher and is co-Director of ForecastingPrinciples.com and AdvertisingPrinciples.com. During his career Kesten has developed new and better forecasting methods, and has published on advertising, strategy, and public policy issues affecting businesses in, inter alia, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Business Research, and Journal of Public Policy & Marketing. He was previously a founder and director of four businesses, including a market research firm.

Academic Publications

Armstrong, J. S., Du, R., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2015). Predictive validity of evidence-based persuasion principles: An application of the index method. European Journal of Marketing. [Forthcoming with changes]

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2015). Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence. Journal of Business Research, 1678–1685. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.026

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2015). Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative. Journal of Business Research, 1717–1731. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.031

Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2015). Golden Rule of Forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you. Journal of Business Research, 1768–1771. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.jbusres.2015.03.036

Graefe, A., Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2015). Improving causal models for election forecasting: Further evidence on the Golden Rule of Forecasting. [Working paper]

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2014). Forecasting global climate change. In A. Moran (Ed.), Climate Change: The Facts 2014, (pp. 170–186), Melbourne, Australia: IPA.

Green, K. C., Soon, W., & Armstrong, J. S. (2014). Evidence-based forecasting for climate change policies. [Working paper – not for citation]

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2014). Demand forecasting: Evidence-based methods. [Working paper] Graefe, A., Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2013). Forecasting. pp. 593604 in Gass, S. I. & Fu, M. C. (Eds.),

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (3rd Edition). New York: Springer. Armstrong, J. S., & Green, K. C. (2013). Global climate models and their limitations: Model simulation and

forecasting – Methods and principles. pp. 14-17 in Idso, C. D., Carter, R. M., & Singer, S. F. (Eds.), Climate

Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science. Chicago, IL: The Heartland Institute.
Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2013). Effects of corporate social responsibility and irresponsibility policies:

Conclusionsfromevidence-basedresearch. JournalofBusinessResearch,66,1922–1927.
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2012). Evidence on the effects of mandatory disclaimers in advertising. Journal of

Public Policy and Marketing, 31, 293–304. [With commentary, 305–324]
Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2012). Should we put a price on free speech? Journal of Public Policy and

Marketing, 31, 325.
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2012). Have the courts protected free speech for business people? JPP&M Appendix. Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2011). Research on forecasting for the manmade global warming alarm.

Energy and Environment, 22, 1091–1104. [Testimony to U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology] Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in

conflicts. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 69–80.
Green, K. C., Graefe, A. & Armstrong, J. S. (2011). Forecasting principles. Part 6, 527-534 in Lovric, M. (ed.),

International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science. Springer.
Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., Jones, R., & Wright, M. (2010). Predicting elections from politicians’ faces.

International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 22, 511–522.
Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Soon, W. (2009). Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision

making. International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 826–832. *
Green, K. C. & Tashman, L. (2009). Percentage error: What denominator? Foresight, 12, 36-40.
Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2008). Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit.

Interfaces (with commentary), 38, 382-404.
Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2008). What is the appropriate public-policy response to uncertainty?

Interfaces, 38, 404-405.
Green, K. C. & Tashman, L. (2008). Should we define forecast error as e = F – A or e = A – F? Foresight, 10, 38-40. Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts. Energy

and Environment, 18, 997-1021.
Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Graefe, A. (2007). Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction

Markets Compared. Foresight, 8, 17-20.
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Structured analogies for forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting,

23, 365-376. †
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). The value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts. Interfaces, 37,

287-299. ‡
Armstrong, J. S. & Green, K. C. (2007). Competitor-oriented objectives: The myth of market share. International

Journal of Business, 12 (1), 117-136.
Green, K. C. (2005). Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in

conflicts: Further evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 463-472. §
Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2005). The war in Iraq: should we have expected better forecasts? Foresight, 2, 50-52. Green, K. C. (2005). What can forecasting do for you? Foresight, 1 (1), 53-54.
Green, K. C. (2003). Do practitioners care about findings from management research? Interfaces, 33(6), 105-107. Green, K. C. (2002). Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and

unaided judgement. International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 321-344. **
Green, K. C. (2002). Embroiled in a conflict: who do you call? International Journal of Forecasting, 18, 389-395

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